3xtzh
0x57522caebb6d3ecf8be8af6e836186f872e947f5
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $30.4k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration88.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? · No | 0.501 | 1.000 | $914.07 | +$455.66 |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? · No | 0.292 | 0.720 | $350.91 | +$208.31 |
| Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? · No | 0.235 | 0.976 | $234.22 | +$177.79 |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? · Yes | 0.292 | 0.660 | $216.24 | +$120.54 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 13? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.86 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$97.89 |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.67 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? · No | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$364.68at 0.199Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?
- +$29.52at 0.880Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
- +$6.60at 0.726Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$6.44at 0.935Megaquake by December 31?
- +$3.49at 0.962Megaquake by November 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-02 06:42 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $97.89 |
| 06-02 06:40 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | SELL | 0.39 | $102.57 |
| 05-12 00:11 | Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? | BUY | 0.5799528746 | $369.20 |
| 05-12 00:10 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.759 | $151.80 |
| 05-12 00:09 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.2978847112 | $23.93 |
| 05-12 00:09 | Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? | BUY | 0.5788324932 | $44.78 |
| 05-11 23:52 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | BUY | 0.292 | $73.00 |
| 05-11 11:54 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | BUY | 0.2921723814 | $99.53 |
| 04-19 23:37 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.726 | $145.20 |
| 01-11 05:15 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.4175192555 | $78.06 |
| 01-11 05:12 | Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | BUY | 0.032 | $1.67 |
| 12-09 12:58 | Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.85 | $14.43 |
| 12-09 07:09 | Megaquake by December 31? | BUY | 0.9352233144 | $93.00 |
| 11-27 03:40 | Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.17 | $428.40 |
| 11-23 06:14 | Megaquake by November 30? | BUY | 0.9622712524 | $88.97 |