3xtzh
0x57522caebb6d3ecf8be8af6e836186f872e947f5
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $32.3k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $460.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration31.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.595 | $460.61 | +$35.14 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 13? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.86 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$97.88 |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.67 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? · No | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$443.49at 0.515Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?
- +$364.68at 0.199Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?
- +$298.63at 0.295Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
- +$181.55at 0.235Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?
- +$97.71at 0.300Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 12:38 | Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5496124732 | $425.48 |
| 10-18 12:36 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.9132828594 | $445.12 |
| 09-04 13:58 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | SELL | 0.5442113295 | $178.31 |
| 09-04 13:58 | Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? | SELL | 0.9917312786 | $238.11 |
| 06-02 06:42 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $97.89 |
| 06-02 06:40 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | SELL | 0.39 | $102.57 |
| 05-12 00:11 | Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? | BUY | 0.5799528746 | $369.20 |
| 05-12 00:10 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.759 | $151.80 |
| 05-12 00:09 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.2978847112 | $23.93 |
| 05-12 00:09 | Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? | BUY | 0.5788324932 | $44.78 |
| 05-11 23:52 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | BUY | 0.292 | $73.00 |
| 05-11 11:54 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | BUY | 0.2921723814 | $99.53 |
| 04-19 23:37 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.726 | $145.20 |
| 01-11 05:15 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.4175192555 | $78.06 |
| 01-11 05:12 | Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | BUY | 0.032 | $1.67 |