tonifili
0x56f0f6ffe308642913e14e636db59eb9de051c37
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $1.13M
- Markets traded
- 811
- Open portfolio
- $173.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded811
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.784Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
- +$1.4kat 0.419Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?
- +$1.3kat 0.663Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in November?
- +$992.86at 0.291Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in September?
- +$769.93at 0.005Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 14:53 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? | BUY | 0.31 | $31.00 |
| 08-02 14:51 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? | BUY | 0.64 | $64.00 |
| 06-17 06:58 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 06-16 17:56 | Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? | BUY | 0.013 | $0.87 |
| 06-16 17:55 | Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? | BUY | 0.024 | $6.03 |
| 06-15 06:00 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? | BUY | 0.032 | $6.40 |
| 06-15 05:28 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? | BUY | 0.023 | $2.30 |
| 06-15 01:36 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? | BUY | 0.069 | $6.90 |
| 06-15 01:35 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.60 |
| 06-12 07:04 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? | BUY | 0.06 | $3.72 |
| 06-03 07:43 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? | BUY | 0.76 | $48.13 |
| 06-02 04:00 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in May? | SELL | 0.017 | $3.40 |
| 05-31 14:17 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? | SELL | 0.999 | $199.80 |
| 05-24 20:03 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? | SELL | 0.3 | $4.54 |
| 05-23 17:01 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? | BUY | 0.38 | $38.00 |