Economista
0x56e26857608289b4d2e8b5e479ade573f36f269b
- Realised P&L
- $432.96
- Volume
- $19.0k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $904.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? · Yes | 0.761 | 0.994 | $626.64 | +$146.64 |
| Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? · No | 0.652 | 0.315 | $120.84 | −$129.16 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? · No | 0.879 | 0.985 | $97.49 | +$10.49 |
| Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? · No | 0.190 | 0.175 | $36.84 | −$3.16 |
| Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.475 | $22.62 | +$2.62 |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? · No | 0.603 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$161.66at 0.755No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting?
- +$127.40at 0.400Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$92.86at 0.350NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets
- +$82.95at 0.166Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$74.97at 0.575Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 18:59 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? | SELL | 0.4464515355 | $186.08 |
| 07-29 18:57 | Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting? | SELL | 0.85 | $84.07 |
| 07-29 13:49 | Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.6599999976 | $50.00 |
| 07-29 13:48 | Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.6599999976 | $50.00 |
| 07-29 13:47 | Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.6537229522 | $50.00 |
| 07-29 13:46 | Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.6426169726 | $100.00 |
| 07-28 23:58 | Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.4932014635 | $107.84 |
| 07-27 23:17 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | BUY | 0.1899999969 | $40.00 |
| 07-22 18:23 | Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%? | BUY | 0.4199999933 | $20.00 |
| 07-22 18:17 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.6 | $256.50 |
| 07-14 21:07 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.571 | $116.95 |
| 07-12 03:00 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0139999932 | $2.00 |
| 07-10 17:20 | Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting? | BUY | 0.5964534271 | $59.00 |
| 07-10 17:19 | Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? | BUY | 0.8789999995 | $87.00 |
| 07-10 17:19 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.165999996 | $34.00 |