PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

michaelzwz

0x56a468276db383e42afc41412f93c99759d35bbc

Realised P&L
$3.57
Volume
$48.9k
Markets traded
48
Open portfolio
$12.74

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded48
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration32.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample44 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)65.9%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration52.2% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · No0.8700.981$6.65+$0.75
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No0.9790.981$4.44+$0.01
Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader? · No0.9600.990$1.66+$0.05

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-11 13:29Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.994$2.22
08-08 03:16Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader?SELL0.991$1.65
06-29 22:42Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?SELL0.954$1.95
06-29 22:42Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?SELL0.85$3.03
06-29 22:25Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.938$3.45
06-29 22:25Modi out by December 31, 2026?SELL0.935$1.75
06-14 01:06Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.925$3.89
06-14 01:06Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?SELL0.8$10.88
05-18 03:45Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?BUY0.8699999867$5.90
05-15 15:15Netanyahu out by June 30?BUY0.9599999165$4.60
05-14 05:03Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?BUY0.9789998904$4.43
05-11 07:45Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.8999998756$5.79
04-25 08:59Will Trump visit China by June 30?BUY0.82$4.20
04-19 00:12Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?BUY0.869999986$3.10
04-12 10:49Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 13?BUY0.9389999913$4.36