michaelzwz
0x56a468276db383e42afc41412f93c99759d35bbc
- Realised P&L
- $3.57
- Volume
- $48.9k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $12.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.981 | $6.65 | +$0.75 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.979 | 0.981 | $4.44 | +$0.01 |
| Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader? · No | 0.960 | 0.990 | $1.66 | +$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.26at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 10?
- +$10.53at 0.997Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 11?
- +$2.57at 0.724Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 13?
- +$2.17at 0.640Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
- +$1.97at 0.739Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 13:29 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.994 | $2.22 |
| 08-08 03:16 | Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader? | SELL | 0.991 | $1.65 |
| 06-29 22:42 | Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | SELL | 0.954 | $1.95 |
| 06-29 22:42 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? | SELL | 0.85 | $3.03 |
| 06-29 22:25 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.938 | $3.45 |
| 06-29 22:25 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.935 | $1.75 |
| 06-14 01:06 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.925 | $3.89 |
| 06-14 01:06 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $10.88 |
| 05-18 03:45 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999867 | $5.90 |
| 05-15 15:15 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY | 0.9599999165 | $4.60 |
| 05-14 05:03 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.9789998904 | $4.43 |
| 05-11 07:45 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8999998756 | $5.79 |
| 04-25 08:59 | Will Trump visit China by June 30? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.20 |
| 04-19 00:12 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? | BUY | 0.869999986 | $3.10 |
| 04-12 10:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 13? | BUY | 0.9389999913 | $4.36 |