toomanyfent
0x568b9fddd380c3b0391ff72778ef76fb4126f9f3
- Realised P&L
- $330.94
- Volume
- $12.6k
- Markets traded
- 294
- Open portfolio
- $70.67
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded294
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? · No | 0.275 | 0.770 | $30.80 | +$19.80 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · No | 0.690 | 0.875 | $8.75 | +$1.85 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? · No | 0.830 | 0.865 | $8.65 | +$0.35 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? · No | 0.540 | 0.645 | $6.45 | +$1.05 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.170 | $5.95 | −$7.70 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.275 | $5.50 | +$1.50 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? · Yes | 0.857 | 0.305 | $4.58 | −$8.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$61.30at 0.384Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?
- +$53.60at 0.330Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?
- +$44.28at 0.262Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?
- +$27.80at 0.305Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$27.57at 0.692Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 07:28 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? | SELL | 0.27 | $1.89 |
| 08-01 07:28 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | SELL | 0.58 | $1.74 |
| 08-01 07:28 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.46 | $4.60 |
| 08-01 06:35 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? | BUY | 0.29 | $2.03 |
| 08-01 06:35 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.89 |
| 08-01 06:34 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.49 | $4.90 |
| 06-01 14:39 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.30 |
| 06-01 14:39 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 06-01 14:26 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? | BUY | 0.93 | $1.86 |
| 06-01 14:26 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? | BUY | 0.44 | $1.32 |
| 06-01 14:26 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 06-01 14:21 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.60 |
| 06-01 14:21 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? | BUY | 0.84 | $5.04 |
| 06-01 14:21 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? | BUY | 0.3 | $3.30 |
| 06-01 14:20 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? | BUY | 0.93 | $6.51 |