btobbes
0x56543bc508f0b85fc5d448515baf8a6d67b0dc18
- Realised P&L
- $-677.00
- Volume
- $38.4k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $553.72
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? · Yes | 0.251 | 0.095 | $265.11 | −$434.88 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.194 | 0.040 | $203.47 | −$796.52 |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.095 | 0.046 | $48.92 | −$51.08 |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? · No | 0.656 | 0.048 | $36.22 | −$463.78 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$590.69at 0.503Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
- +$511.68at 0.492Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
- +$211.23at 0.669Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
- +$180.61at 0.340Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$144.63at 0.299Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-22 07:03 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $7.05 |
| 06-22 07:01 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9908050389 | $291.41 |
| 06-22 06:59 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.2k |
| 05-19 19:41 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.536 | $72.30 |
| 05-19 19:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.9540850022 | $280.61 |
| 05-01 17:47 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $500.00 |
| 04-23 06:28 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL | 0.951 | $184.82 |
| 04-23 06:27 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.6432381699 | $300.00 |
| 04-23 06:26 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.4 | $100.00 |
| 04-23 06:25 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.679999999 | $200.00 |
| 04-23 06:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.95 | $253.33 |
| 04-23 06:22 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999996 | $200.00 |
| 04-23 06:21 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.6948262928 | $200.00 |
| 04-23 06:21 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL | 0.9517244671 | $526.41 |
| 04-23 06:18 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.3065189798 | $124.03 |