0x56187cd0431986ff11dfa9cf86c852173734d7f8
0x56187cd0431986ff11dfa9cf86c852173734d7f8
- Realised P&L
- $17.85
- Volume
- $653.12
- Markets traded
- 211
- Open portfolio
- $6.28
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded211
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? · Yes | 0.326 | 0.649 | $1.99 | +$0.99 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.510 | 1.000 | $1.96 | +$0.96 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? · Up | 0.730 | 0.982 | $1.35 | +$0.35 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.325 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 03:03 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:03 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.3259999641 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 10:15 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 02:15 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:37 | Will Corpus Christi FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:01 | SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 15:43 | Will FC Supra Du Quebec win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 12:07 | Will Spalding United FC win on 2026-10-06? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 11:32 | Will Guandong GZ-Power FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 07:41 | Wingate & Finchley FC vs. Bedford Town FC: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 13:01 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 19:53 | Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-10-04? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 14:30 | Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-10-05? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 14:30 | Costa Rica vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 07:39 | Will CA Colegiales win on 2026-10-04? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |