Rhabarberbarbarbar
0x55e2436d747835c7e40b0c6cf92f632bf1215fc9
- Realised P&L
- $81.5k
- Volume
- $5.47M
- Markets traded
- 640
- Open portfolio
- $11.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded640
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1? · No | 0.946 | 0.971 | $8.0k | +$202.77 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on November 1? · No | 0.939 | 0.970 | $2.1k | +$65.58 |
| Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? · Yes | 0.368 | 0.455 | $1.1k | +$203.76 |
| Will Cap dip to $0.015 before 2027? · No | 0.727 | 0.850 | $211.27 | +$30.50 |
| Will Cap dip to $0.01 before 2027? · No | 0.684 | 0.905 | $114.46 | +$27.88 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in October? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$331.50 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.8k |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? · Yes | 0.591 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.1kat 0.403Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?
- +$25.0kat 0.500Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 15?
- +$24.3kat 0.666Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?
- +$22.3kat 0.384Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?
- +$16.7kat 0.524Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 23:04 | Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on November 1? | BUY | 0.96 | $257.28 |
| 11-01 21:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on November 1? | BUY | 0.95 | $499.70 |
| 11-01 20:51 | Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on November 1? | BUY | 0.93 | $1.2k |
| 11-01 19:57 | Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.9190524326 | $948.28 |
| 11-01 18:12 | Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.95 | $266.95 |
| 11-01 18:12 | Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.9499375729 | $3.3k |
| 11-01 17:35 | Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.9545372668 | $195.43 |
| 11-01 17:05 | Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.96 | $146.88 |
| 11-01 17:05 | Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.9606680698 | $1.6k |
| 11-01 15:55 | Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1? | BUY | 0.9374236589 | $1.4k |
| 10-31 00:42 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in October? | BUY | 0.0424158762 | $169.92 |
| 10-31 00:30 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in October? | BUY | 0.0469985457 | $161.58 |
| 10-31 00:29 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October? | SELL | 0.0100012443 | $372.07 |
| 10-31 00:20 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October? | BUY | 0.981 | $690.62 |
| 10-31 00:20 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October? | BUY | 0.9802746114 | $189.19 |