idealists
0x55656a8b6875c8f1dce122cd2d4db1b52ef69184
- Realised P&L
- $-473.09
- Volume
- $71.8k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $283.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.860 | $208.12 | +$55.66 |
| U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.080 | $42.96 | −$59.07 |
| Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.072 | $30.30 | −$53.30 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? · No | 0.780 | 1.000 | $2.00 | +$0.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$496.91at 0.210North Carolina Central Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs (W)
- +$493.48at 0.270Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?
- +$487.80at 0.400Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?
- +$255.68at 0.660Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5
- +$217.60at 0.320Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 2.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 08:29 | Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | SELL | 0.76 | $7.60 |
| 04-24 03:15 | Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.31 | $132.99 |
| 04-12 08:40 | Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | SELL | 0.73 | $306.60 |
| 04-11 08:56 | Will "Bomb" be said 100+ times during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | SELL | 0.09 | $11.97 |
| 04-11 08:55 | Will "Bomb" be said 100+ times during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | SELL | 0.09 | $29.16 |
| 04-11 02:39 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $152.46 |
| 04-10 23:59 | AHL: Milwaukee Admirals vs. Grand Rapids Griffins | BUY | 0.249 | $158.61 |
| 04-10 23:20 | Will "Bomb" be said 100+ times during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | BUY | 0.12 | $54.84 |
| 04-09 14:04 | Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | SELL | 0.48 | $170.40 |
| 04-09 14:03 | Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | SELL | 0.48 | $358.08 |
| 04-08 01:36 | Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | BUY | 0.67 | $281.40 |
| 04-08 00:33 | Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | BUY | 0.81 | $891.81 |
| 03-31 02:41 | Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-04-17? | SELL | 0.61 | $539.85 |
| 03-30 05:23 | Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-04-17? | BUY | 0.67 | $592.95 |
| 03-30 02:07 | Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $325.20 |