TheMogger72
0x54fc3e92c22b868edbf5a900f9a81ee158744330
- Realised P&L
- $-345.78
- Volume
- $43.8k
- Markets traded
- 773
- Open portfolio
- $161.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded773
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$145.59at 0.942Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
- +$140.01at 0.938Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
- +$117.89at 0.510Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
- +$81.71at 0.346Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27?
- +$80.62at 0.162Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on September 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:50 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on November 2? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.76 |
| 11-01 14:23 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.29 | $5.07 |
| 11-01 14:23 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.29 | $1.45 |
| 11-01 14:22 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.37 | $11.10 |
| 10-30 20:39 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on November 1? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 20:34 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.449999964 | $1.25 |
| 10-30 20:33 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.439999956 | $2.00 |
| 10-30 20:32 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 31? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 20:30 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 20:30 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 20:29 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 20:28 | Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 31? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 20:25 | Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 10-30 20:25 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.986 | $17.93 |
| 10-30 20:24 | Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $9.60 |