threesome
0x54a80b25396fb4ae193a018334f49b1b22f752fd
- Realised P&L
- $-3.2k
- Volume
- $65.0k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $3.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · Yes | 0.961 | 0.995 | $3.7k | +$125.44 |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.890 | $7.07 | +$1.35 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? · Yes | 0.954 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$196.88 |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? · Yes | 0.973 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.5k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$75.47at 0.987Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
- +$69.24at 0.990Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
- +$68.47at 0.981Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
- +$45.00at 0.820US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
- +$42.92at 0.849Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 12:01 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $5.72 |
| 09-08 23:39 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.967 | $199.20 |
| 09-08 23:39 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.967 | $199.20 |
| 09-08 23:39 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.966 | $199.96 |
| 09-08 23:38 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.966 | $228.94 |
| 08-28 02:51 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.973 | $1.1k |
| 08-02 13:20 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $117.08 |
| 07-25 16:59 | Over $37.5M committed to the RipCars public sale? | BUY | 0.998 | $15.52 |
| 07-25 16:59 | Over $50M committed to the RipCars public sale? | BUY | 0.999 | $164.84 |
| 07-25 16:59 | Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.1k |
| 07-25 16:59 | Over $37.5M committed to the RipCars public sale? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.7k |
| 07-24 15:11 | Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale? | BUY | 0.84 | $239.39 |
| 07-21 15:16 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.6k |
| 07-17 16:33 | Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale? | BUY | 0.929 | $24.15 |
| 07-17 16:33 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL | 0.998 | $293.59 |