Laurenman
0x54a78f8c6e64572111c5683a9efeed25a04c881b
- Realised P&L
- $-62.1k
- Volume
- $18.01M
- Markets traded
- 1,318
- Open portfolio
- $54.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,318
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.9kat 0.500Will Solana reach $260 September 15-21?
- +$2.7kat 0.839U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28?
- +$2.6kat 0.596Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.982Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
- +$1.7kat 0.662US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:50 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | SELL | 0.87 | $4.1k |
| 08-02 21:47 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.94 | $470.00 |
| 08-02 18:48 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.86 | $241.39 |
| 08-02 14:50 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.9686506535 | $411.34 |
| 08-02 10:03 | Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9759826794 | $475.58 |
| 08-02 09:46 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $559.58 |
| 08-02 09:21 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.89 | $528.19 |
| 08-02 09:18 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.94 | $600.66 |
| 08-02 09:15 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? | BUY | 0.9296570516 | $573.68 |
| 08-02 09:13 | Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun in August 2026? | BUY | 0.9717647059 | $330.40 |
| 08-02 09:13 | Will Trump meet with Joseph Aoun in August 2026? | BUY | 0.9637300579 | $121.42 |
| 08-02 09:06 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $2.0k |
| 08-01 21:20 | Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.85 | $318.50 |
| 08-01 21:13 | Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.904 | $54.24 |
| 08-01 21:12 | Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.903925 | $361.57 |