0x54A598106e0467DaCc1A4cEd3909582f72aAEe3D-1723093936269
0x54a598106e0467dacc1a4ced3909582f72aaee3d
- Realised P&L
- $-21.2k
- Volume
- $4.54M
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.680 | $1.2k | +$171.84 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.740 | $374.52 | +$30.37 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.528 | 0.285 | $354.80 | −$302.35 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.105 | $105.00 | −$345.00 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.017 | $49.30 | −$936.68 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.026 | $0.10 | −$0.90 |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.564 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.9k |
| Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$509.92 |
| Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw? · Yes | 0.355 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1000.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.0kat 0.192Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,500 on the final trading day of March 2026?
- +$12.6kat 0.278Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$11.0kat 0.113Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$10.7kat 0.720Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 March 16-22?
- +$6.4kat 0.078Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 02:01 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.03 | $24.36 |
| 10-01 19:45 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.578 | $213.28 |
| 10-01 17:39 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.57 | $1.1k |
| 10-01 17:12 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.5473010756 | $3.7k |
| 10-01 17:11 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.2300992949 | $2.3k |
| 09-29 15:56 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $263.41 |
| 09-29 15:55 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $1.8k |
| 09-29 15:54 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $1.3k |
| 09-29 15:49 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $91.92 |
| 09-29 15:46 | Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.9k |
| 09-15 21:23 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.5305077 | $1.6k |
| 07-30 00:01 | Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.22 | $2.1k |
| 07-27 17:03 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.46386 | $1.4k |
| 07-27 17:02 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.250512648 | $7.5k |
| 07-20 19:37 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.362 | $10.9k |