0x549e737bffa2495bc65dc1cc4932a6f492db7e43
0x549e737bffa2495bc65dc1cc4932a6f492db7e43
- Realised P&L
- $-1.13
- Volume
- $546.46
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $3.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.815 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? · No | 0.800 | 0.805 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? · Up | 0.390 | 0.355 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.065 | $0.19 | −$0.81 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $547.50 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.105 | $0.13 | −$0.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.25at 0.320US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$9.74at 0.258Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$5.72at 0.639Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?
- +$5.69at 0.642Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in July?
- +$5.52at 0.651Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 09:37 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 01:10 | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 17:04 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 09:03 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $547.50 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.8199994588 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 01:02 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 15:55 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 07:53 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 23:53 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 15:52 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:49 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.2B? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:25 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:07 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 02:05 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 17:59 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:42 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |