0x5490E136038db2C5baD70674523BD8328D07c60b-1735106287600
0x5490e136038db2c5bad70674523bd8328d07c60b
- Realised P&L
- $-14.19
- Volume
- $5.5k
- Markets traded
- 107
- Open portfolio
- $39.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded107
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration4.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $22.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 21? · Yes | 0.996 | 0.999 | $17.73 | +$0.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.19at 0.993Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?
- +$0.14at 0.995Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 17?
- +$0.13at 0.994Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 15?
- +$0.11at 0.994Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?
- +$0.11at 0.995Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 03:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 21? | BUY | 0.995718405 | $17.68 |
| 10-17 04:14 | Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.994999938 | $11.95 |
| 10-11 21:53 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 12? | BUY | 0.9967308627 | $18.52 |
| 10-08 00:22 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $11.03 |
| 10-06 21:41 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 7? | BUY | 0.995 | $15.84 |
| 09-29 11:41 | Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.9987593018 | $22.20 |
| 09-25 16:36 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 26? | BUY | 0.9929999562 | $13.93 |
| 09-22 09:50 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | BUY | 0.997 | $13.01 |
| 09-14 14:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 15? | BUY | 0.994 | $23.71 |
| 09-11 23:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $19.46 |
| 09-03 02:48 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.998 | $23.07 |
| 08-29 13:11 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in August? | BUY | 0.997 | $20.78 |
| 08-27 01:35 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $23.45 |
| 08-21 05:36 | Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 17-23? | BUY | 0.9979999538 | $13.32 |
| 08-19 03:13 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $17.60 |