PolyBot

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Traders

NicoleShaw4553

0x5481ed1233874553c9d20652d35edec1714450ec

Realised P&L
$1.6k
Volume
$97.2k
Markets traded
128
Open portfolio
$945.43

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded128
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration75.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? · Yes0.4401.000$716.00+$400.96
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 61%? · Yes0.2091.000$120.00+$94.92
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? · Yes0.4500.215$109.44$119.61
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8PM ET · Up0.5000.000$0.00$121.00
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET · Down0.3100.000$0.00$111.91
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? · No0.1900.000$0.00$288.42
Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15? · No0.3800.000$0.00$184.30
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? · No0.6500.000$0.00$6.50
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 6PM ET · Down0.5000.000$0.00$75.50
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election? · No0.8400.000$0.00$145.32
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 · Under0.5800.000$0.00$157.18
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.3300.000$0.00$5.94
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? · Yes0.0260.000$0.00$1.27
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? · No0.2300.000$0.00$187.91

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
04-13 05:21Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?SELL0.34$296.82
04-13 04:42Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?SELL0.84$227.64
04-13 04:40Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?SELL0.85$527.85
04-13 04:38Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?SELL0.85$8.50
04-13 04:37Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?SELL0.85$11.05
04-12 20:27MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?SELL0.87$1.2k
04-12 08:42Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?SELL0.87$50.46
04-12 04:46MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?BUY0.88$1.2k
04-12 04:07Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?BUY0.8$732.00
04-12 03:20Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?BUY0.47$410.31
04-11 23:27Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?SELL0.89$1.2k
04-11 03:21Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?BUY0.87$1.2k
04-10 00:34Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?SELL0.83$98.77
04-09 22:03Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?SELL0.65$89.05
04-09 14:51Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?SELL0.84$10.92