NicoleShaw4553
0x5481ed1233874553c9d20652d35edec1714450ec
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $97.2k
- Markets traded
- 128
- Open portfolio
- $945.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded128
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.120Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-03-24?
- +$863.19at 0.310Will "Oscar" or "Oscars" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)
- +$232.85at 0.501Will Pacto Histórico win 24-26 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 2026 Colombian parliamentary election?
- +$225.72at 0.101Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?
- +$211.60at 0.330Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-13 05:21 | Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | SELL | 0.34 | $296.82 |
| 04-13 04:42 | Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $227.64 |
| 04-13 04:40 | Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.85 | $527.85 |
| 04-13 04:38 | Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.85 | $8.50 |
| 04-13 04:37 | Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.85 | $11.05 |
| 04-12 20:27 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $1.2k |
| 04-12 08:42 | Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30? | SELL | 0.87 | $50.46 |
| 04-12 04:46 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $1.2k |
| 04-12 04:07 | Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $732.00 |
| 04-12 03:20 | Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY | 0.47 | $410.31 |
| 04-11 23:27 | Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30? | SELL | 0.89 | $1.2k |
| 04-11 03:21 | Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30? | BUY | 0.87 | $1.2k |
| 04-10 00:34 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | SELL | 0.83 | $98.77 |
| 04-09 22:03 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.65 | $89.05 |
| 04-09 14:51 | Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | SELL | 0.84 | $10.92 |