SimonCtan
0x547b8601ea93d2ef06adaa3879d7286446fc8fad
- Realised P&L
- $-356.97
- Volume
- $54.0k
- Markets traded
- 158
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded158
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.115 | $590.59 | −$25.67 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.105 | $539.57 | +$25.70 |
| Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.065 | $322.50 | −$2.50 |
| Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.087 | $103.57 | −$4.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$293.66at 0.415Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
- +$168.97at 0.866Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
- +$122.14at 0.542Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
- +$70.58at 0.611Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
- +$66.86at 0.778Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 16:26 | Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.091 | $107.71 |
| 09-14 16:26 | Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.1 | $513.87 |
| 09-14 16:26 | Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.12 | $616.27 |
| 09-14 15:58 | Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.049 | $252.19 |
| 09-13 15:47 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.2 | $19.32 |
| 08-20 13:11 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7299999979 | $70.51 |
| 07-22 02:58 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.854999999 | $60.00 |
| 07-20 01:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | BUY | 0.8922516864 | $25.00 |
| 07-20 01:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $25.00 |
| 07-20 01:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET | BUY | 0.7199999965 | $25.00 |
| 07-08 10:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | SELL | 0.0761284801 | $15.12 |
| 07-08 10:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | SELL | 0.27 | $1.73 |
| 07-08 10:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | BUY | 0.51 | $51.00 |
| 07-08 10:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET | SELL | 0.83 | $168.07 |
| 07-08 10:36 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | BUY | 0.5920539642 | $60.56 |