amblified
0x547695835d20a484403eb7a90ec80b6e4956a0fe
- Realised P&L
- $20.97
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 118
- Open portfolio
- $15.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded118
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · Yes | 0.966 | 0.983 | $7.63 | +$0.13 |
| Will Rashida Tlaib be the MI-12 Democratic nominee? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.984 | $5.02 | +$0.27 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.930 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.925 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| T-Mobile US & SpaceX merger/acquisition announced in 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.905 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.46at 0.526Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?
- +$5.85at 0.405Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
- +$5.49at 0.243Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$4.91at 0.500Israel strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?
- +$4.70at 0.500Will Iran announce a new supreme leader by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 18:47 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | BUY | 0.8599995356 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 18:10 | Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.01 |
| 07-31 16:51 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.9659999974 | $7.50 |
| 07-28 02:35 | US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $1.93 |
| 07-26 16:24 | US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $4.57 |
| 07-24 18:50 | US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999384 | $2.50 |
| 07-22 00:57 | US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.7199995392 | $1.00 |
| 07-22 00:55 | US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.70 |
| 07-22 00:52 | Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27? | SELL | 0.903 | $1.28 |
| 07-21 02:37 | Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31? | BUY | 0.982999998 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 23:48 | US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $5.94 |
| 07-19 03:35 | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? | SELL | 0.987 | $1.99 |
| 07-19 00:02 | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? | BUY | 0.985999999 | $2.00 |
| 07-18 00:48 | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Day Box Office be at least 48m? | BUY | 0.9699997866 | $1.00 |
| 07-18 00:39 | Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |