amblified
0x547695835d20a484403eb7a90ec80b6e4956a0fe
- Realised P&L
- $21.05
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 126
- Open portfolio
- $25.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded126
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clavicular and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirm relationship in 2026? · No | 0.987 | 0.977 | $9.90 | −$0.10 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.895 | $7.47 | +$0.04 |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? · No | 0.973 | 0.979 | $5.03 | +$0.03 |
| Kim Jong Un visits the US in 2026? · No | 0.975 | 0.973 | $2.49 | −$0.01 |
| T-Mobile US & SpaceX merger/acquisition announced in 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.935 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.47at 0.526Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?
- +$5.85at 0.405Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
- +$5.49at 0.243Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$4.91at 0.500Israel strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?
- +$4.70at 0.500Will Iran announce a new supreme leader by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 06:38 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.89 | $7.43 |
| 09-17 06:23 | Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | BUY | 0.9729998383 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 05:29 | Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $5.52 |
| 09-15 07:14 | Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026? | BUY | 0.689999818 | $2.35 |
| 09-15 07:12 | Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026? | BUY | 0.689999818 | $2.35 |
| 08-19 17:36 | Kim Jong Un visits the US in 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $2.50 |
| 08-19 17:31 | Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.03 |
| 08-13 23:33 | Clavicular and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirm relationship in 2026? | BUY | 0.9865067459 | $10.00 |
| 08-13 23:31 | Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.9769999992 | $2.50 |
| 08-11 02:48 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on August 11? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.00 |
| 08-11 02:05 | Will Enes Kanter Freedom be drafted in the 2027 WNBA Draft? | BUY | 0.9299997117 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 18:47 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | BUY | 0.8599995356 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 18:10 | Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.01 |
| 07-31 16:51 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.9659999974 | $7.50 |
| 07-28 02:35 | US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $1.93 |