0x546019dd894d22a86319efa9455fcd3d1bcfbfd6
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $30.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? · Yes | 0.412 | 0.952 | $11.55 | +$6.55 |
| Will Taylor Swift be the third most streamed artist for 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.785 | $9.81 | +$4.81 |
| Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.675 | $4.69 | −$0.31 |
| Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.170 | $1.55 | −$1.45 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? · No | 0.340 | 0.050 | $0.84 | −$4.85 |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.030 | $0.61 | −$3.39 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.017 | $0.55 | −$2.45 |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.049 | $0.48 | −$1.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.74at 0.180Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$4.64at 0.838Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
- +$0.09at 0.985Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
- +$0.02at 0.989Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
- +$-1.23at 0.251Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 10:36 | Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.3299999296 | $3.00 |
| 08-01 10:34 | Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? | BUY | 0.4119999628 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 10:34 | Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? | BUY | 0.7199998618 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 10:33 | Will Taylor Swift be the third most streamed artist for 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $5.00 |
| 06-25 17:57 | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.06 | $3.00 |
| 06-14 17:03 | Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? | SELL | 0.201 | $4.17 |
| 06-14 17:02 | Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | BUY | 0.0429999803 | $2.00 |
| 06-14 17:02 | Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.027184453 | $2.00 |
| 05-27 18:02 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.9829999966 | $2.00 |
| 05-27 17:56 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999736 | $3.00 |
| 05-25 18:42 | José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? | BUY | 0.2 | $4.00 |
| 05-25 18:41 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1749999705 | $4.00 |
| 05-24 15:56 | Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? | BUY | 0.7599999696 | $5.00 |
| 05-24 10:02 | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.98 | $5.69 |
| 05-24 10:00 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.339999963 | $5.69 |