fmntour
0x5448227a1c2a106ba44fa037f836962280ef18e9
- Realised P&L
- $-10.1k
- Volume
- $52.5k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $573.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-19.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$254.15at 0.440Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?
- +$235.21at 0.171Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
- +$125.33at 0.100Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
- +$101.52at 0.330MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?
- +$57.11at 0.636Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-12 02:21 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1199999998 | $500.00 |
| 05-12 02:20 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.2690251044 | $56.05 |
| 03-27 01:25 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.1049930337 | $166.24 |
| 03-09 20:15 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | SELL | 0.9664880429 | $79.21 |
| 03-07 20:45 | Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.22533007 | $225.33 |
| 03-02 21:32 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.6099999961 | $50.00 |
| 02-24 21:21 | Will Trump say "Too Late" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | BUY | 0.4291708405 | $50.00 |
| 02-24 18:58 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address? | BUY | 0.7541178797 | $50.00 |
| 02-24 03:40 | Will Trump say "Fake News" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | BUY | 0.5 | $50.00 |
| 02-24 00:14 | Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | BUY | 0.8499999996 | $100.00 |
| 02-24 00:05 | Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address? | BUY | 0.6299999982 | $50.00 |
| 02-23 23:31 | Will Trump say "Scam" or "Hoax" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | BUY | 0.6799999984 | $50.00 |
| 02-10 07:50 | Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.0298339257 | $52.21 |
| 02-09 19:43 | US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.0599999989 | $50.00 |
| 02-09 19:43 | US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.0429844826 | $50.00 |