0x542448075e0111c70f32b8bc5acbdacdccad392b
- Realised P&L
- $5.68
- Volume
- $243.87
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $4.45
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.335 | $1.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.325 | $1.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.450 | 0.115 | $0.51 | −$1.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$5.14at 0.280US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$3.99at 0.341Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?
- +$3.82at 0.351Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 22:32 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999966 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 14:24 | Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.3299999489 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 13:58 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 03:42 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 14:47 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 06:46 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.699999965 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 20:07 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 17:33 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 15:22 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 07:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 22:00 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 07:09 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 07:09 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4499999212 | $2.00 |
| 08-29 22:36 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999684 | $1.71 |
| 08-29 22:35 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |