0x540bc5be91105abefde2bc6bf13fae8d068cb500
- Realised P&L
- $14.59
- Volume
- $792.37
- Markets traded
- 105
- Open portfolio
- $12.87
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded105
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.983 | $6.38 | +$1.38 |
| Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? · No | 0.440 | 1.000 | $4.84 | +$2.71 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.155 | $1.65 | −$3.35 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" during his Executive Order signing? · No | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.34at 0.306Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of March?
- +$10.04at 0.259Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
- +$8.16at 0.380Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of March?
- +$7.83at 0.339Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250?
- +$7.71at 0.265Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-07 16:13 | Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $10.25B? | BUY | 0.7 | $3.50 |
| 06-04 08:00 | Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events? | BUY | 0.62 | $3.10 |
| 06-02 21:10 | Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $275M? | BUY | 0.76 | $3.80 |
| 06-02 21:05 | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 6? | BUY | 0.33 | $2.97 |
| 06-02 20:56 | Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.5B? | BUY | 0.5899998438 | $3.40 |
| 05-30 11:35 | Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? | BUY | 0.4229571287 | $4.36 |
| 05-30 11:30 | Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? | BUY | 0.8349999741 | $4.68 |
| 05-28 19:34 | FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301? | BUY | 0.3899999567 | $4.41 |
| 05-28 19:29 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $3.19 |
| 05-28 19:24 | Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3939999776 | $4.74 |
| 05-26 21:23 | Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $23.5B? | BUY | 0.6299999434 | $3.23 |
| 05-23 20:29 | Will Trump post "Scam" or "Hoax" on Truth Social this week? | BUY | 0.299102235 | $1.96 |
| 05-23 20:23 | Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.325B? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.25 |
| 05-23 20:07 | Will Synopsys Q2 Design Automation revenue be above $1.8B? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.30 |
| 05-13 11:01 | Will Trump say "Regime change" this week? | BUY | 0.67 | $3.35 |