NellieSmith356
0x54052add9dd6062fcdf997d0c8d7d4147b395f95
- Realised P&L
- $1.36
- Volume
- $9.5k
- Markets traded
- 351
- Open portfolio
- $108.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded351
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $45.35 | −$0.05 |
| Will Joshua James be the TN-04 Republican nominee? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $32.08 | −$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 39°C or higher on August 7? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $23.45 | −$0.01 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or higher on August 6? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $7.70 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.10at 0.999Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
- +$0.07at 0.997Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28?
- +$0.05at 0.997Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on May 5?
- +$0.04at 0.999Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$0.04at 0.997Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on April 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 02:52 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 39°C or higher on August 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.46 |
| 08-05 23:24 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on August 6? | BUY | 0.9989999832 | $22.60 |
| 08-05 19:41 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on August 6? | BUY | 0.9989999922 | $22.80 |
| 08-05 18:56 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or higher on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.70 |
| 08-05 11:43 | Will Joshua James be the TN-04 Republican nominee? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.10 |
| 07-31 02:40 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in July? | SELL | 0.997 | $27.01 |
| 07-31 00:48 | Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.9979999723 | $10.16 |
| 07-30 21:02 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $90 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.80 |
| 07-30 20:32 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in July? | BUY | 0.9986470133 | $30.50 |
| 07-30 20:07 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $18.30 |
| 07-30 20:03 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on July 31? | SELL | 0.9979761975 | $33.96 |
| 07-30 16:24 | Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9983046864 | $10.51 |
| 07-30 14:39 | Will Joe S. San Agustin win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.998 | $20.27 |
| 07-30 09:49 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.33 |
| 07-30 08:59 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.9989999716 | $34.00 |