Amaoto
0x53ec3bfb82df1a352759d7286dcaa852dc95412c
- Realised P&L
- $20.66
- Volume
- $36.1k
- Markets traded
- 186
- Open portfolio
- $551.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded186
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 21? · No | 0.961 | 0.980 | $263.30 | +$5.12 |
| ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30? · No | 0.907 | 0.934 | $163.54 | +$4.84 |
| OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 26? · No | 0.925 | 0.620 | $74.40 | −$36.56 |
| OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 27? · Yes | 0.191 | 0.300 | $50.19 | +$18.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$156.00at 0.620Will Trump visit China by April 30?
- +$104.74at 0.049Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
- +$104.08at 0.490Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April?
- +$73.04at 0.694Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
- +$57.67at 0.822Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 04:25 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 27? | SELL | 0.1733333333 | $5.20 |
| 09-26 04:24 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 27? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.40 |
| 09-26 04:22 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 27? | BUY | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 09-26 04:11 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 27? | SELL | 0.2 | $3.00 |
| 09-26 04:10 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 27? | SELL | 0.2517815785 | $14.13 |
| 09-26 04:00 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 26? | BUY | 0.924655 | $110.96 |
| 09-26 03:54 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 27? | BUY | 0.1827551893 | $53.44 |
| 09-26 01:16 | Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of September 21? | BUY | 0.9609260431 | $258.17 |
| 09-25 02:58 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 24? | BUY | 0.985 | $39.40 |
| 09-25 02:13 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 24? | BUY | 0.982832 | $98.28 |
| 09-24 03:15 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 23? | BUY | 0.9894736842 | $94.00 |
| 09-24 00:51 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 23? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.18 |
| 09-23 01:15 | Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 22? | BUY | 0.992 | $9.92 |
| 09-22 02:23 | Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 22? | BUY | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 09-22 02:23 | Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 22? | BUY | 0.86 | $17.20 |