0x53b71a001877222e5ea6f4ae64a67f7b83ad9d31
0x53b71a001877222e5ea6f4ae64a67f7b83ad9d31
- Realised P&L
- $-9.73
- Volume
- $192.03
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $3.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.780 | 0.988 | $2.00 | +$0.42 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $201 Week of September 28 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.760 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.20at 0.329Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?
- +$2.49at 0.452Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?
- +$2.39at 0.462Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
- +$1.93at 0.412Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026?
- +$1.74at 0.420Will Trump say "Grocery" or "Dairy" during Michigan remarks?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 07:19 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $201 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 22:11 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 11:19 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 11:50 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 08-30 04:37 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-25 19:23 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.31 |
| 08-22 18:25 | Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 08-21 17:26 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 20:50 | Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 12:38 | Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 03:51 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | BUY | 0.3799999468 | $2.00 |
| 08-18 19:12 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 08-16 08:13 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 08-16 07:56 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-15 23:46 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |