0x53b2279beb4c4c12ea063d0e3d2b90013277dc91
0x53b2279beb4c4c12ea063d0e3d2b90013277dc91
- Realised P&L
- $1.33
- Volume
- $33.76
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $2.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.805 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Costco say "Dividend" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.585 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.345 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.51at 0.227Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
- +$1.60at 0.392Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?
- +$0.80at 0.562Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$0.45at 0.691Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?
- +$0.39at 0.720Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 02:41 | Will Costco say "Dividend" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 02:41 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 18:41 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 10:37 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 02:36 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 05:34 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799996464 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 08:04 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 21:54 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 12:52 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 03:53 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 19:46 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 11:45 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 03:45 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 07:42 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 23:02 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |