Scarletttye
0x53ae0010f44f3ede94cc223d392dc78c2b752af1
- Realised P&L
- $-914.50
- Volume
- $61.7k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $647.20
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration78.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? · No | 0.830 | 1.000 | $343.00 | +$58.31 |
| Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.135 | $259.74 | +$67.34 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.021 | $44.46 | −$237.51 |
| Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoffs · Dragon Ranger Gaming | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.6k |
| Jazz vs. Hawks · Jazz | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$909.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.640UFC 324: Hokit vs. Freeman (Heavyweight, Prelims)
- +$150.81at 0.022Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
- +$73.50at 0.810Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
- +$70.56at 0.116Will France win Eurovision 2026?
- +$45.88at 0.348Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-22 08:38 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? | BUY | 0.13 | $37.31 |
| 08-22 07:49 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? | BUY | 0.13 | $83.07 |
| 08-22 07:35 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? | BUY | 0.13 | $81.77 |
| 08-22 07:29 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? | BUY | 0.13 | $79.82 |
| 07-14 11:34 | Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $32.30 |
| 07-14 11:33 | Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $53.90 |
| 07-14 11:27 | Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $52.70 |
| 07-14 11:10 | Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $53.50 |
| 06-25 01:55 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $321.57 |
| 06-05 03:36 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $255.85 |
| 05-26 02:14 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $284.69 |
| 05-24 02:22 | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? | SELL | 0.07 | $219.94 |
| 05-10 08:48 | Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $151.47 |
| 05-10 08:48 | Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $245.43 |
| 04-28 07:36 | Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | SELL | 0.949 | $666.19 |