verymindful
0x5384a281e4320c8cde52db213f40cdd230ece021
- Realised P&L
- $911.27
- Volume
- $146.2k
- Markets traded
- 96
- Open portfolio
- $799.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded96
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.810 | 0.895 | $497.62 | +$47.26 |
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.895 | $237.46 | +$22.55 |
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? · Yes | 0.133 | 0.115 | $63.94 | −$10.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$974.70at 0.430Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$769.83at 0.430Zohran Mamdani Parlay
- +$412.78at 0.235Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 6?
- +$374.40at 0.280Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on May 23?
- +$296.75at 0.477Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-21 09:47 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.81 | $4.86 |
| 05-21 09:44 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.81 | $445.50 |
| 05-21 09:41 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.1331654676 | $74.04 |
| 03-25 06:52 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $214.91 |
| 03-08 05:08 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 11? | BUY | 0.95 | $247.19 |
| 03-08 05:08 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 11? | BUY | 0.0414947352 | $10.80 |
| 03-08 04:50 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 8? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.39 |
| 03-08 04:50 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 8? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.39 |
| 03-08 04:50 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 8? | BUY | 0.98 | $380.39 |
| 03-08 04:50 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 8? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.39 |
| 03-08 04:49 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 8? | BUY | 0.014 | $5.43 |
| 03-08 04:40 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 9? | BUY | 0.937 | $132.12 |
| 03-08 04:39 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 9? | BUY | 0.006 | $0.85 |
| 03-08 04:39 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 9? | BUY | 0.0056879433 | $0.80 |
| 03-08 04:39 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 9? | BUY | 0.0382746419 | $5.40 |