ffgt45
0x53773164c18eb67fe77d071b382e6d642f4e85f2
- Realised P&L
- $391.01
- Volume
- $23.3k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $39.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.963 | 0.989 | $19.95 | +$0.51 |
| Beezie FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.880 | 0.835 | $15.87 | −$0.85 |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.978 | 0.995 | $2.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.981 | 0.986 | $2.01 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$395.20at 0.490Eagles vs. Packers
- +$0.79at 0.962Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?
- +$0.67at 0.984Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals?
- +$0.57at 0.976Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$0.56at 0.967Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-24 00:55 | Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? | BUY | 0.999000001 | $3.00 |
| 02-24 00:55 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.00 |
| 02-24 00:55 | Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.00 |
| 02-24 00:55 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.00 |
| 02-24 00:55 | Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9809999735 | $2.00 |
| 02-24 00:54 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9779999941 | $2.00 |
| 02-24 00:51 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.962999991 | $19.44 |
| 09-29 11:08 | Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.987 | $23.27 |
| 08-31 12:47 | Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.25 |
| 07-17 09:50 | Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? | SELL | 0.7254944828 | $21.04 |
| 03-29 14:22 | Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.9839999998 | $41.21 |
| 02-13 01:34 | Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.9829999993 | $20.07 |
| 02-13 01:34 | Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.962 | $20.00 |
| 02-13 01:31 | Will Valencia CF win La Liga? | SELL | 0.999 | $40.07 |
| 01-20 05:09 | Will Valencia CF win La Liga? | BUY | 0.998 | $40.03 |