shiwu666666
0x535022e68a55290929917efe3caa6c0bbce59434
- Realised P&L
- $432.03
- Volume
- $96.5k
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $354.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.095 | $159.38 | +$36.89 |
| Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.337 | 0.360 | $84.30 | +$5.45 |
| Will Dems win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? · Yes | 0.256 | 0.315 | $66.66 | +$12.40 |
| Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? · Opp. | 0.501 | 0.420 | $16.82 | −$3.26 |
| Ukraine lowers conscription age by March 31, 2027? · No | 0.840 | 0.845 | $12.68 | +$0.07 |
| Turkish troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.835 | 0.875 | $8.75 | +$0.40 |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.231 | 0.275 | $5.50 | +$0.89 |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer announce a Presidential run before 2028? · Yes | 0.297 | 0.320 | $0.62 | +$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$147.10at 0.227Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
- +$82.68at 0.298Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by December 31?
- +$81.63at 0.101Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
- +$79.33at 0.103Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by November 30?
- +$61.58at 0.173Will Yashar win 26-27 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 18:45 | Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? | SELL | 0.39 | $2.34 |
| 10-10 18:44 | Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 10-10 18:44 | Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $0.85 |
| 10-10 18:44 | Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.1913031425 | $168.38 |
| 10-10 16:36 | Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.1839473684 | $13.98 |
| 10-10 16:36 | Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $12.08 |
| 10-10 16:35 | Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $14.94 |
| 10-10 16:35 | Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $29.40 |
| 10-10 16:35 | Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.2012068966 | $35.01 |
| 10-10 16:35 | Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.2239541321 | $11.33 |
| 10-10 16:13 | Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $3.50 |
| 10-10 16:12 | Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $1.80 |
| 10-10 16:02 | Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $5.40 |
| 10-10 16:01 | Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31? | SELL | 0.07 | $2.10 |
| 10-10 16:01 | Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31? | SELL | 0.076 | $3.80 |