user-418
0x532b5437c9e83a35554b3daf6057acb40222cccc
- Realised P&L
- $754.28
- Volume
- $109.9k
- Markets traded
- 4,953
- Open portfolio
- $363.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,953
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration8.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9? · Yes | 0.691 | 0.940 | $117.90 | +$31.28 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 9? · Yes | 0.681 | 0.935 | $111.57 | +$30.24 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 9? · Yes | 0.970 | 0.994 | $88.77 | +$2.10 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 9? · Yes | 0.851 | 0.950 | $46.26 | +$4.80 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 9? · Yes | 0.577 | 0.001 | $0.06 | −$63.68 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 7? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.34 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 8? · Yes | 0.602 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$78.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$187.70at 0.190Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 4?
- +$78.29at 0.474Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 5?
- +$49.09at 0.663Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7PM ET
- +$47.43at 0.482Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 3?
- +$46.08at 0.565Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 06:39 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.9699999935 | $86.67 |
| 08-09 06:35 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.8514139839 | $41.46 |
| 08-09 06:06 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 9? | SELL | 0.999 | $29.97 |
| 08-09 05:19 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.5 | $6.60 |
| 08-09 05:14 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.6099998877 | $1.63 |
| 08-09 05:14 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.62999993 | $1.80 |
| 08-09 05:14 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.6428571429 | $1.80 |
| 08-09 05:12 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.7199999486 | $2.80 |
| 08-09 05:11 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.7248115757 | $65.24 |
| 08-09 03:25 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.72 | $3.33 |
| 08-09 02:55 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.6799999993 | $78.00 |
| 08-09 02:34 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.96 | $24.00 |
| 08-09 02:04 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.5771414127 | $63.74 |
| 08-08 19:37 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 8? | SELL | 0.999 | $96.61 |
| 08-08 18:50 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 8? | SELL | 0.999 | $13.19 |