user-418
0x532b5437c9e83a35554b3daf6057acb40222cccc
- Realised P&L
- $-34.10
- Volume
- $226.7k
- Markets traded
- 5,551
- Open portfolio
- $86.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,551
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.803 | 0.998 | $86.17 | +$16.86 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.446 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$66.14 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on September 24? · Yes | 0.837 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.22 |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.422 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$65.53 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 25? · Yes | 0.915 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$72.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$241.95at 0.368Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 20?
- +$185.98at 0.197Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 4?
- +$148.06at 0.441Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 27?
- +$146.52at 0.503Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on September 17?
- +$131.07at 0.435Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 15:47 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.999 | $15.20 |
| 09-28 14:55 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.8562001466 | $13.88 |
| 09-28 14:37 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.98 | $10.02 |
| 09-28 14:31 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.7899999918 | $1.93 |
| 09-28 14:25 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.8099999962 | $4.30 |
| 09-28 14:25 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.7887288585 | $49.20 |
| 09-28 06:00 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-27 16:50 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 27? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.80 |
| 09-27 16:37 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 27? | SELL | 0.999 | $16.99 |
| 09-27 16:36 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 27? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 09-27 16:36 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 27? | SELL | 0.999 | $38.57 |
| 09-27 15:13 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.98 | $74.11 |
| 09-25 11:07 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.4199999389 | $1.65 |
| 09-25 10:56 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.5099999969 | $8.23 |
| 09-25 09:35 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.9299999871 | $2.16 |