0x532145e4147f4d78e90d855016a43b39bfaf9445
0x532145e4147f4d78e90d855016a43b39bfaf9445
- Realised P&L
- $0.79
- Volume
- $21.15
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $4.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 2? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.460 | $1.38 | +$0.24 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on October 2? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.510 | $1.35 | +$0.29 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 2? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.300 | $0.90 | −$0.15 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.150 | $0.38 | −$0.68 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.05 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.79at 0.572Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 08:03 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.42 | $1.05 |
| 10-01 08:02 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.971 | $1.94 |
| 10-01 03:04 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.38 | $1.14 |
| 10-01 03:02 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.56 | $1.12 |
| 10-01 02:04 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.05 |
| 10-01 02:04 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.44 | $1.10 |
| 10-01 02:01 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.06 |
| 10-01 00:04 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.05 |