arezwan
0x527cfade3b602a5f31c571421c88b417aa56735a
- Realised P&L
- $-150.33
- Volume
- $22.6k
- Markets traded
- 232
- Open portfolio
- $171.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded232
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.154 | 0.444 | $108.32 | +$70.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 30? · Yes | 0.341 | 0.305 | $20.77 | −$2.43 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 30? · Yes | 0.407 | 0.395 | $19.38 | −$0.62 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.046 | $9.20 | +$3.90 |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.029 | $7.27 | −$3.95 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.051 | $5.15 | −$1.85 |
| Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.003 | $0.50 | −$1.50 |
| Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.002 | $0.41 | −$0.67 |
| Will Claudia Pina win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.025 | $0.32 | +$0.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$50.42at 0.099Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on September 8?
- +$47.78at 0.287Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 9?
- +$29.04at 0.069Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?
- +$21.06at 0.278Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 7?
- +$16.82at 0.837Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 14:25 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.32 | $3.20 |
| 09-28 13:38 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.4075546697 | $20.00 |
| 09-28 12:36 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.3442848686 | $20.00 |
| 09-28 08:07 | Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.03 | $7.35 |
| 09-28 03:57 | Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.031 | $7.75 |
| 09-28 03:46 | Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.032 | $8.00 |
| 09-27 13:01 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 27? | SELL | 0.93 | $9.30 |
| 09-27 12:44 | Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.059 | $1.77 |
| 09-27 09:57 | Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.069 | $4.82 |
| 09-25 21:00 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.67 | $4.69 |
| 09-25 20:33 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.60 |
| 09-25 03:30 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.2950819575 | $3.00 |
| 09-25 03:06 | Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.339 | $3.28 |
| 09-23 17:51 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 17:51 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |