0x52443c4febd50f94bd20d11bb61bcccc60574690
0x52443c4febd50f94bd20d11bb61bcccc60574690
- Realised P&L
- $7.46
- Volume
- $478.50
- Markets traded
- 113
- Open portfolio
- $0.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded113
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meta’s Q3 headcount be above 68000? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.670 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$7.03at 0.227Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
- +$3.34at 0.382Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 03:58 | Will Meta’s Q3 headcount be above 68000? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 07:36 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:25 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 01:53 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 17:48 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5649998418 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:37 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2169999967 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 01:17 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 17:17 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 07:55 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7349999228 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:54 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 22:52 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 14:49 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 06:38 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 20:32 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:38 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |