feilei
0x51fcaa97e123fbc354de289ae1d0fb0bbc1714b5
- Realised P&L
- $-7.51
- Volume
- $12.7k
- Markets traded
- 88
- Open portfolio
- $15.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded88
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $14.29 | −$0.01 |
| Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) · Chicago Cubs | 0.460 | 0.455 | $1.14 | −$0.01 |
| Will the price of Solana be less than $80 on December 27? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 9? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.60 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on November 23? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.60 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 17? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.10 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 1? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.69at 0.390Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs
- +$0.30at 0.997Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$0.20at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?
- +$0.19at 0.998Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?
- +$0.19at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 13:26 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.30 |
| 09-24 13:24 | Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) | BUY | 0.46 | $1.15 |
| 08-01 12:03 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.9989999687 | $15.50 |
| 06-08 10:50 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.00 |
| 06-02 10:37 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.00 |
| 05-23 08:00 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | BUY | 0.998 | $90.00 |
| 05-19 08:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? | BUY | 0.998 | $88.99 |
| 05-19 08:05 | Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 05-19 08:05 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.20 |
| 05-13 09:11 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $92.00 |
| 05-07 12:14 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 7? | BUY | 0.9979999971 | $92.00 |
| 05-04 11:12 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $91.00 |
| 04-26 10:41 | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $91.00 |
| 04-23 13:25 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.99 |
| 04-18 09:43 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 19? | BUY | 0.998 | $90.97 |