Minervavon
0x51f9b7c8f05393f56774ee3c974df8026e1243be
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $15.3k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $239.89
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? · No | 0.620 | 0.695 | $239.89 | +$25.89 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? · No | 0.379 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$530.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$242.04at 0.486Will Trump visit China by April 30?
- +$121.61at 0.620US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$26.12at 0.064Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?
- +$21.62at 0.7100 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?
- +$16.32at 0.380No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 13:45 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? | SELL | 0.89991008 | $28.12 |
| 10-06 05:35 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.064 | $2.00 |
| 10-06 05:34 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | SELL | 0.01 | $1.33 |
| 10-06 05:02 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | BUY | 0.6199999995 | $214.00 |
| 10-06 05:01 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30? | SELL | 0.8120435811 | $171.61 |
| 10-06 05:01 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31? | SELL | 0.65 | $42.35 |
| 10-03 06:44 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31? | BUY | 0.6599999963 | $43.00 |
| 09-11 14:26 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.35 | $18.69 |
| 09-08 13:42 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30? | BUY | 0.70976483 | $150.00 |
| 09-08 13:37 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $4.34 |
| 05-11 03:47 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.0196211754 | $12.63 |
| 05-04 16:29 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | SELL | 0.17 | $32.47 |
| 05-04 15:57 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.4348746905 | $280.00 |
| 05-04 15:40 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $72.69 |
| 05-02 06:17 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.389999986 | $10.00 |