0x51b11dcca36cf02ee7760962c302c3607218b295
0x51b11dcca36cf02ee7760962c302c3607218b295
- Realised P&L
- $1.83
- Volume
- $180.71
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $1.73
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 17? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.515 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.350 | $0.71 | −$0.29 |
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.050 | $0.09 | −$0.91 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.030 | $0.06 | −$0.94 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.14at 0.247WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 26?
- +$3.14at 0.247S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 18?
- +$3.14at 0.247Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $64 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$2.33at 0.306Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?
- +$2.23at 0.310US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 19:57 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 17? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 11:26 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 02:35 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 18:28 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 13? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:28 | Will Unity Bancorp (UNTY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:55 | Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 13:07 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on October 8? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 04:17 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 06:38 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 22:37 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 14:37 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:45 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 14:49 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 06:02 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 18:26 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |