0x51ae4fd822503E81Be9eA9d5D5E76500C309CE30-1760263931291
0x51ae4fd822503e81be9ea9d5d5e76500c309ce30
- Realised P&L
- $-754.48
- Volume
- $250.9k
- Markets traded
- 859
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded859
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.813 | 0.999 | $998.50 | +$185.15 |
| Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.893 | 0.990 | $416.08 | +$40.40 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · No | 0.935 | 0.938 | $413.19 | +$1.10 |
| Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.934 | 0.976 | $195.20 | +$8.40 |
| Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.939 | 0.996 | $69.69 | +$3.95 |
| Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have 163 or more seats after the 2026 election? · No | 0.475 | 0.485 | $39.14 | +$0.84 |
| Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.505 | 0.380 | $12.91 | −$4.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$334.47at 0.093Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on September 2?
- +$180.47at 0.510Will Brumbies win?
- +$161.83at 0.165WTT - Men's Singles: Peng Xiang vs Luka Mladenovic
- +$147.58at 0.420St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
- +$146.77at 0.190KHL: Metallurg Magnitogorsk vs. Torpedo
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 18:39 | Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have 163 or more seats after the 2026 election? | SELL | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 16:29 | Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.49 | $9.85 |
| 09-17 14:16 | Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 158 and 162 seats after the 2026 election? | SELL | 0.12 | $6.26 |
| 09-17 13:28 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.24 | $1.92 |
| 09-17 08:59 | Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have 163 or more seats after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.38 | $21.17 |
| 09-17 04:14 | Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $186.80 |
| 09-17 01:37 | Will the opposition parties win by 3–4 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.025 | $1.25 |
| 09-17 01:37 | Will the opposition parties win by 1–2 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.0131148 | $0.33 |
| 09-16 13:51 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.41 | $8.20 |
| 09-16 12:35 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $14.40 |
| 09-16 10:43 | Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.989 | $9.89 |
| 09-16 10:42 | Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.78 | $238.68 |
| 09-16 10:41 | Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.77 | $23.10 |
| 09-16 10:25 | Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.76 | $19.00 |
| 09-16 10:24 | Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.76 | $19.00 |