ElusiveCapital
0x51a5945df25079c039411e803b9001b14137c855
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $180.6k
- Markets traded
- 134
- Open portfolio
- $688.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded134
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$868.05at 0.888Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?
- +$638.18at 0.643Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?
- +$514.64at 0.890Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?
- +$414.33at 0.949Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$189.18at 0.867Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 11:10 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | SELL | 0.92 | $138.82 |
| 09-16 14:25 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | SELL | 0.8877778915 | $173.55 |
| 09-03 14:42 | Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $1.0k |
| 08-19 22:27 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.8951639204 | $700.00 |
| 08-19 22:19 | Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999991 | $995.80 |
| 07-28 13:13 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.1723138075 | $8.24 |
| 07-28 13:13 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.1750057679 | $28.52 |
| 07-28 13:12 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4478932657 | $68.90 |
| 07-28 13:12 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.57 | $71.30 |
| 07-18 09:26 | Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8601942715 | $491.93 |
| 07-18 09:25 | Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9001549907 | $580.78 |
| 07-15 11:57 | Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $890.00 |
| 07-12 15:33 | Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $7.90 |
| 07-12 15:33 | Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $28.01 |
| 07-12 15:32 | Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9099892117 | $455.49 |