PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

ElusiveCapital

0x51a5945df25079c039411e803b9001b14137c855

Realised P&L
$-1.2k
Volume
$180.6k
Markets traded
134
Open portfolio
$688.64

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded134
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration43.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration51.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? · Yes0.8950.821$357.63−$32.31
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No0.9420.287$329.87−$751.48
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.2200.003$1.14−$98.86
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? · No0.9450.000$0.00−$200.00
Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first? · $3k0.3290.000$0.00−$10.00
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? · No0.4360.000$0.00−$100.00
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? · No0.7800.000$0.00−$100.00
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? · No0.9100.000$0.00−$600.00
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes0.0130.000$0.00−$1.00
Ethereum flipped in 2026? · No0.6770.000$0.00−$740.00
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes0.0100.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Solana dip to $80 in February? · No0.6240.000$0.00−$10.00
Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31? · No0.4140.000$0.00−$278.02
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in December? · No0.1380.000$0.00−$60.00
Will Jim McGreevey win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election? · Yes0.7050.000$0.00−$100.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 11:10Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?SELL0.92$138.82
09-16 14:25Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?SELL0.8877778915$173.55
09-03 14:42Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.95$1.0k
08-19 22:27Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?BUY0.8951639204$700.00
08-19 22:19Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9399999991$995.80
07-28 13:13Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?SELL0.1723138075$8.24
07-28 13:13Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?SELL0.1750057679$28.52
07-28 13:12Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.4478932657$68.90
07-28 13:12Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?SELL0.57$71.30
07-18 09:26Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.8601942715$491.93
07-18 09:25Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.9001549907$580.78
07-15 11:57Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.89$890.00
07-12 15:33Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.79$7.90
07-12 15:33Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.8$28.01
07-12 15:32Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.9099892117$455.49