market-watcher
0x518d8ad68f3ffab238099f23ab4e25878efa5a2c
- Realised P&L
- $-650.38
- Volume
- $90.1k
- Markets traded
- 2,027
- Open portfolio
- $31.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,027
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration17.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$783.84at 0.471Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
- +$288.23at 0.431Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?
- +$110.12at 0.482Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13?
- +$100.51at 0.507Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?
- +$97.50at 0.512Will Sporting CP win on 2026-09-09?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 16:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 22? | BUY | 0.5850388702 | $500.00 |
| 09-28 15:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 29? | SELL | 0.49 | $96.24 |
| 09-28 15:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11AM ET | SELL | 0.459357934 | $328.89 |
| 09-28 15:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET | SELL | 0.5647076584 | $194.52 |
| 09-28 15:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11AM ET | SELL | 0.4820171674 | $112.31 |
| 09-28 14:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11AM ET | BUY | 0.5268820074 | $500.00 |
| 09-28 13:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.2980769151 | $10.00 |
| 09-28 12:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.3853564547 | $50.00 |
| 09-28 12:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET | BUY | 0.5519779199 | $100.00 |
| 09-28 11:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | SELL | 0.1981428571 | $41.61 |
| 09-28 11:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | BUY | 0.4761904762 | $100.00 |
| 09-28 10:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 29? | BUY | 0.5091492102 | $100.00 |
| 09-28 10:47 | Will FK Kudrivka win on 2026-09-12? | SELL | 0.53 | $3.40 |
| 09-28 10:47 | Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-10? | SELL | 0.62 | $4.56 |
| 09-28 10:47 | Will Málaga CF win on 2026-10-09? | SELL | 0.64 | $4.84 |