0x517bfa3faba94c0a6943c59e15ab8158314876f5
- Realised P&L
- $-295.18
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $110.96
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.034 | $110.96 | −$255.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.30at 0.330Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$-9.96at 0.045Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$-10.00at 0.160Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
- +$-20.00at 0.140Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
- +$-20.00at 0.767Khamenei public appearance by Friday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-09 02:21 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.0773154917 | $14.21 |
| 05-04 21:58 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.0947033055 | $15.96 |
| 04-25 12:53 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.0931721136 | $9.43 |
| 04-24 06:02 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.0898839831 | $36.61 |
| 04-20 10:54 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.096143215 | $139.74 |
| 04-13 03:01 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.1292146796 | $18.83 |
| 04-02 02:16 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.1079999953 | $19.95 |
| 03-31 00:56 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.1529999955 | $26.96 |
| 03-17 11:13 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.0449999958 | $9.96 |
| 03-12 09:50 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.1659999977 | $49.82 |
| 03-03 22:23 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.1829999967 | $34.98 |
| 01-09 03:12 | Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | BUY | 0.1399999948 | $20.00 |
| 01-05 10:14 | Khamenei public appearance by Friday? | BUY | 0.7675859417 | $20.00 |
| 01-05 02:02 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.3299999812 | $10.00 |
| 09-29 03:02 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |