kahramanjon
0x516d897978c3d7d2c5340fdef404ce52511da005
- Realised P&L
- $4.03
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $130.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the CT-04 House seat? · No | 0.962 | 0.980 | $49.00 | +$0.90 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · No | 0.890 | 0.935 | $46.75 | +$2.25 |
| Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 7M ETH before 2027? · No | 0.920 | 0.700 | $35.00 | −$11.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.15at 0.921Will a hurricane form by May 31?
- +$1.65at 0.958Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
- +$1.45at 0.970Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$1.25at 0.975No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?
- +$1.09at 0.966Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-07 12:11 | Will Iran strike Georgia by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9859999996 | $20.00 |