0x515e8e9b806a388a51808e2bc5cd92dc11bbec0d
- Realised P&L
- $-4.9k
- Volume
- $77.7k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $9.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.968 | 0.990 | $5.4k | +$116.57 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? · Yes | 0.947 | 0.914 | $2.3k | −$83.76 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.891 | 0.770 | $1.0k | −$161.51 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? · No | 0.923 | 1.000 | $594.91 | +$45.57 |
| Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary? · No | 0.966 | 0.987 | $75.97 | +$1.58 |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.205 | $21.56 | −$2.63 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.025 | $13.29 | −$0.13 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.034 | $3.33 | −$66.23 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.002 | $2.93 | −$6.54 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$725.52at 0.246Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- +$344.12at 0.694NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
- +$191.29at 0.893Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
- +$183.13at 0.964US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?
- +$142.30at 0.952Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 18:30 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.982999999 | $637.73 |
| 09-10 18:29 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8004722673 | $84.76 |
| 09-09 23:47 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8409999996 | $250.16 |
| 09-09 19:48 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4699999995 | $171.98 |
| 09-09 19:46 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.48 | $3.09 |
| 09-09 19:46 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.48 | $2.2k |
| 09-08 22:43 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9019999594 | $16.00 |
| 09-08 20:32 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9119999998 | $152.71 |
| 09-08 19:28 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.908991857 | $22.40 |
| 09-06 03:06 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.983562412 | $187.84 |
| 09-04 18:49 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9290786488 | $171.93 |
| 09-02 14:21 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.9859999999 | $3.1k |
| 09-02 11:15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.983 | $69.81 |
| 09-02 06:37 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.9829999927 | $82.57 |
| 09-02 06:00 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.9829998418 | $4.79 |