03515646
0x513771b88960608a026ac762c48f698be3d6d0d1
- Realised P&L
- $-19.45
- Volume
- $22.5k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $32.76
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration93.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.955 | $15.74 | +$0.74 |
| Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.991 | 0.993 | $10.02 | +$0.02 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.580 | $7.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$60.00at 0.500Will Solana reach $190 November 17-23?
- +$0.80at 0.988EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?
- +$0.75at 0.996Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?
- +$0.37at 0.998Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?
- +$0.31at 0.997Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 03:29 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $7.00 |
| 09-29 02:28 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 02:26 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 06-29 03:31 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2299999692 | $5.00 |
| 06-29 03:31 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.9099999606 | $15.00 |
| 05-25 06:47 | Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? | BUY | 0.9989999885 | $80.00 |
| 05-25 06:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? | BUY | 0.997999998 | $200.00 |
| 05-25 06:46 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $10.00 |
| 05-25 06:46 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.00 |
| 05-25 06:45 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.00 |
| 05-25 06:45 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.00 |
| 05-25 06:45 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.9909999993 | $10.00 |
| 04-10 08:36 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? | BUY | 0.997 | $112.37 |
| 04-10 08:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? | BUY | 0.996 | $199.88 |
| 04-10 08:32 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? | BUY | 0.9969999269 | $10.00 |