0x51196874c532a9c844936d5245F047Ad6aCb16bf-1764387842756
0x51196874c532a9c844936d5245f047ad6acb16bf
- Realised P&L
- $-1.30
- Volume
- $666.06
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $11.90
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 30? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.595 | $11.90 | +$1.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.64at 0.870Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$6.01at 0.950Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$2.14at 0.979Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21?
- +$-9.05at 0.166Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 24?
- +$-15.05at 0.970Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 01:46 | Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21? | BUY | 0.9782608245 | $100.00 |
| 09-22 15:47 | Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 22? | SELL | 0.7951480194 | $64.03 |
| 09-22 05:44 | Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 22? | BUY | 0.9687020262 | $100.00 |
| 09-22 05:43 | Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 24? | SELL | 0.0215525554 | $1.34 |
| 09-21 09:09 | Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 24? | BUY | 0.1607142837 | $10.00 |
| 02-12 01:29 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.95 | $114.28 |
| 11-29 03:56 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.8699999989 | $98.00 |