longten
0x51177761f31453f33a4d64bc9d20f0dadff28c4e
- Realised P&L
- $-4.4k
- Volume
- $73.7k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $31.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.884 | 0.825 | $23.0k | −$1.7k |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.755 | $5.5k | +$36.30 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.880 | $3.4k | −$195.72 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.208 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.7k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.773Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$-303.15at 0.272Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-25 09:06 | Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.28 | $56.00 |
| 05-25 09:06 | Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2779223407 | $143.15 |
| 05-16 16:22 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.93 | $3.6k |
| 05-13 08:49 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.7k |
| 05-13 08:49 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.8k |
| 05-08 16:16 | Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9 | $402.67 |
| 05-05 11:27 | Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.966 | $1.4k |
| 05-05 06:31 | Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9442155556 | $3.6k |
| 05-05 05:28 | Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8741625763 | $857.35 |