longten
0x51177761f31453f33a4d64bc9d20f0dadff28c4e
- Realised P&L
- $-4.7k
- Volume
- $85.3k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $31.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration68.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.884 | 0.815 | $22.7k | −$1.9k |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.720 | $5.2k | −$217.79 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.819 | $3.2k | −$436.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.775Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$824.56at 0.414Squid FDV above $100M one day after launch
- +$285.52at 0.429Squid FDV above $75M one day after launch
- +$-17.73at 0.032Squid FDV above $300M one day after launch
- +$-283.22at 0.162Squid FDV above $150M one day after launch
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 12:54 | Squid FDV above $150M one day after launch | SELL | 0.0167001085 | $23.85 |
| 08-05 03:33 | Squid FDV above $150M one day after launch | SELL | 0.0651278764 | $50.80 |
| 08-04 14:55 | Squid FDV above $150M one day after launch | SELL | 0.19 | $65.06 |
| 08-04 14:24 | Squid FDV above $150M one day after launch | BUY | 0.16 | $286.14 |
| 08-04 10:03 | Squid FDV above $100M one day after launch | BUY | 0.4 | $542.12 |
| 08-04 10:02 | Squid FDV above $300M one day after launch | BUY | 0.0296430293 | $16.60 |
| 08-04 10:02 | Squid FDV above $200M one day after launch | BUY | 0.1 | $291.51 |
| 08-04 10:02 | Squid FDV above $200M one day after launch | BUY | 0.0897560976 | $62.56 |
| 08-04 10:01 | Squid FDV above $100M one day after launch | BUY | 0.34 | $18.02 |
| 08-04 10:01 | Squid FDV above $75M one day after launch | BUY | 0.412 | $206.00 |
| 05-25 09:06 | Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.28 | $56.00 |
| 05-25 09:06 | Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2779223407 | $143.15 |
| 05-16 16:22 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.93 | $3.6k |
| 05-13 08:49 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.7k |
| 05-13 08:49 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.8k |