0x50F4980C0E8F5d3d00B9ebCCd7515a1691E53784-1765227930150
0x50f4980c0e8f5d3d00b9ebccd7515a1691e53784
- Realised P&L
- $163.93
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $321.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar15.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.468 | 1.000 | $320.32 | +$170.32 |
| Will Trump deport 700-800k people? · Yes | 0.318 | 0.014 | $0.69 | −$14.87 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.00 |
| Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 15, 2026? · No | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$56.19at 0.438U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?
- +$14.81at 0.904Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-21 16:04 | US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4682829622 | $150.00 |
| 01-05 22:56 | Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.83 | $7.47 |
| 01-01 09:35 | Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 12-26 11:01 | Will Trump deport 700-800k people? | BUY | 0.3400939978 | $14.96 |
| 12-26 10:59 | Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.8833746863 | $40.00 |
| 12-25 23:47 | U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? | BUY | 0.438 | $2.19 |
| 12-25 22:32 | Will Trump deport 700-800k people? | BUY | 0.12 | $0.60 |
| 12-25 15:31 | Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $13.20 |
| 12-24 19:30 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? | BUY | 0.12 | $47.14 |