perviy
0x50d7c13b0625fb4690a823e0933cab6136dcdbca
- Realised P&L
- $594.40
- Volume
- $47.6k
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $105.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.339 | 0.235 | $86.25 | −$38.13 |
| Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.195 | $19.50 | −$5.50 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? · Yes | 0.866 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$209.02at 0.750Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?
- +$182.66at 0.900Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?
- +$165.55at 0.695Will Russia recapture Sudzha before December?
- +$99.14at 0.757U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
- +$77.90at 0.779Will Ukraine control Demidovka on March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 08:36 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $52.01 |
| 10-18 11:49 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $36.51 |
| 10-08 15:29 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $11.00 |
| 09-09 19:23 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999989 | $100.00 |
| 06-06 08:10 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $48.36 |
| 04-09 09:39 | Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $12.64 |
| 03-31 08:07 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6999999973 | $232.03 |
| 03-22 08:20 | Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30? | BUY | 0.9776630084 | $75.72 |
| 03-16 07:36 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | BUY | 0.918 | $91.80 |
| 03-12 19:15 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | BUY | 0.998 | $33.87 |
| 03-12 19:14 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.951 | $33.87 |
| 03-11 18:25 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.951 | $18.92 |
| 03-08 09:41 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | SELL | 0.6 | $60.00 |
| 01-23 09:36 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | BUY | 0.64 | $47.96 |
| 01-23 09:35 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | BUY | 0.63 | $159.72 |