0x5097C20A2f223faab8ee953b25854370177442Ca-1733728593852
0x5097c20a2f223faab8ee953b25854370177442ca
- Realised P&L
- $49.65
- Volume
- $11.5k
- Markets traded
- 169
- Open portfolio
- $28.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded169
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.995 | 0.995 | $16.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 October 12-18? · No | 0.997 | 0.998 | $11.01 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.29at 0.560Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17?
- +$0.63at 0.994Will Albania win Eurovision 2025?
- +$0.55at 0.995Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August?
- +$0.30at 0.997Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?
- +$0.28at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 12:03 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.997 | $11.00 |
| 10-12 15:10 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.9939999999 | $48.50 |
| 10-11 12:11 | Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.995 | $17.00 |
| 10-10 15:22 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.996 | $11.00 |
| 10-07 09:04 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 8? | BUY | 0.9978043512 | $51.00 |
| 10-04 22:37 | Will Erika Kokay win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election? | BUY | 0.998 | $18.00 |
| 10-03 07:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 5? | BUY | 0.9982341414 | $37.80 |
| 10-01 14:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 1? | BUY | 0.995 | $13.00 |
| 09-29 18:29 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $56.40 |
| 09-25 14:01 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on September 26? | BUY | 0.995 | $24.00 |
| 09-24 16:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 25? | BUY | 0.998 | $18.00 |
| 09-23 11:05 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $59.20 |
| 09-19 11:37 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 19? | BUY | 0.9969999559 | $14.00 |
| 09-14 06:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 15? | BUY | 0.995 | $13.00 |
| 09-13 18:06 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $54.20 |