0x508fb508c566f2b0e4a0dc69e43924bce9aafef3
- Realised P&L
- $-112.58
- Volume
- $3.4k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $69.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration64.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.374 | 0.834 | $45.04 | +$24.84 |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.005 | $11.50 | −$48.49 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.145 | $7.68 | −$25.18 |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.007 | $5.00 | −$19.99 |
| Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.096 | 0.004 | $0.62 | −$14.35 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? · Yes | 0.368 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.41 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-25 01:23 | Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.096 | $6.82 |
| 03-17 18:40 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.032 | $26.68 |
| 03-17 18:19 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0275535505 | $11.97 |
| 03-17 18:19 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0237396885 | $10.58 |
| 03-17 18:14 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.374 | $20.20 |
| 03-17 18:14 | Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.035 | $24.29 |
| 03-17 18:14 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.017 | $3.06 |
| 03-17 18:13 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.62 | $32.86 |